The Delhi Assembly election exit polls have revealed intriguing signals, with the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) potentially making a return to power after a 27-year gap. Meanwhile, the AAP (Aam Aadmi Party) seems to be falling behind, while Congress holds out hopes of securing a few seats. The election results will determine which party will emerge victorious and hold the key to Delhi’s power.
The Exit Polls and Emerging Trends
On 5th February, after voting concluded for the 70 seats in the Delhi Assembly, multiple exit polls showed potential shifts in the city’s political landscape. According to the MATRIZE survey, there is a close contest between BJP and AAP, with BJP holding a slight edge. The survey predicts that AAP could secure 32-37 seats, while BJP is likely to win 35-40 seats, potentially forming a government. Congress is expected to win just one seat.
In general, the majority of exit polls show AAP trailing behind, while BJP appears on course to form the next government in Delhi. Now, all eyes are on the final election results, which will determine the next ruling party in the capital.
Exit polls have shown AAP in a vulnerable position, causing concern within the party. Senior leaders recall that in 2013, exit polls failed to predict the party’s success, when AAP won 28 seats and formed a government with Congress’ support. Similarly, in 2015, AAP won a massive victory with 67 seats. In 2020, the party saw strong momentum on the ground, which reflected in the election results.
Internally, AAP believes that around 31-35 of its seats are secure, and they hope to gain a few more seats from undecided constituencies to reach the required majority.
BJP’s Strategy and Growing Lead
BJP has pulled out all the stops this time, launching an aggressive campaign and strengthening its grassroots operations. The party’s strategy has focused on micro-management, ensuring that every segment of society, from Dalits to migrants from Eastern UP and Uttarakhand, is addressed.
- Micro-management: BJP specifically tailored its strategies to appeal to Dalits, Purvanchali voters, and migrants from Uttarakhand. The party also reached out to people from Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Bengal.
- Large Campaign Rallies: High-profile BJP leaders like Amit Shah, JP Nadda, and Rajnath Singh conducted numerous rallies, intensifying their outreach efforts.
- Countering AAP’s Freebies: BJP tackled AAP’s free schemes by offering its own guarantees under “Modi’s Guarantee” and reassuring voters that current welfare schemes would continue with additional benefits.
- Strengthening Grassroots: BJP ensured that its workers were organized at every level, from booth-level operations to large rallies, ensuring strong voter turnout.
Congress’s Situation and Prospects
Congress is not expected to play a major role in this election, but the party has managed to secure a foothold in a few constituencies. Congress leaders estimate that the party could win three to four seats, potentially causing damage to both BJP and AAP in eight to ten seats. The party’s primary goal seems to be reclaiming its lost vote bank from AAP, focusing especially on Dalit and minority voters.
Leaders like Sandeep Dikshit have campaigned against Arvind Kejriwal, but Congress seems to have limited impact in this election. The party has also ruled out any possibility of an alliance with AAP, fearing it would strengthen AAP’s position.
Four Possible Scenarios for Delhi
- BJP Forms Government: According to exit polls, BJP may secure a clear majority, making a return to power after 27 years.
- AAP’s Weakened Comeback: If AAP’s strategy proves effective and the exit polls turn out to be inaccurate, AAP could still form a government despite fewer seats than in previous elections.
- BJP-AAP Close Contest, Congress as Kingmaker: If Congress secures 8-10 seats and no party wins a majority, Congress could play a crucial role. However, since Congress has ruled out an alliance with AAP, a repeat of the 2013 scenario cannot be completely ruled out.
- Hung Assembly and Re-Election: If no party can secure a clear majority, Delhi might head to re-elections, with no possibility of forming a coalition.
